I try to be honest with myself in how I think about things. It is hard to be aware of one’s blind spots, and it is tiring to be suspicious of ideas that make one feel better. I may have picked up the habit of self-skepticism from an early exposure to Karl Popper, or a lot of training by curmudgeonly old-school molecular geneticists, but however I got it, I’m stuck with it. Popper taught us all about falsifiability, and my post-doc advisor taught me to have an adversarial relationship with my own ideas, but my favorite formulation is from the evolutionary biologist J.B.S. Haldane.
Evolution is a big, big concept, with ramifications that permeate the entire world of biology, geology, and astronomy, and more. But, to be honest about how one thinks, one must be aware that it’s still only an idea, a view of the world that may be wrong. Haldane was (according to the story) asked what would cause him to change his mind about evolution as an explanation for life on earth. “A fossil rabbit in the pre-Cambrian” was his reply. Pre-Cambrian rocks are over 500 million years old. There are pre-Cambrian fossils, but only of simple invertebrates and mysterious life forms long extinct. But, significantly, there are fossils; if there were rabbits 500 million years ago, they could have been fossilized, so it is in principle possible that Haldane’s reliance upon evolution could have been shaken.
Any responsible thinker should have a pre-Cambrian rabbit for their beliefs. The people who study climate change, if they were honest, would reconsider everything if it were found that carbon dioxide did not in fact help to trap heat, and that hundreds of years of data were in fact due to an easily overlooked artifact. Cancer researchers, if they were honest, would re-evaluate a lot of their beliefs if the apparent connection between smoking and lung cancer were shown to be the result of some chemical in the packaging of cigarette boxes. Furthermore, for an honest thinker, it’s not a matter of simply recognizing falsifying evidence when it appears. Rather, like Haldane, the honest thinker must be aware enough of their thinking that they can imagine and define things that would falsify their beliefs before encountering them.
The news recently has really been getting me down. I have become convinced of a theory that our president is a racist, and that his presidency will be severely detrimental to this country. This theory is based on observation of facts and informed by historical parallels. But, while it is consistent with all facts, it is a theory. It is, and must be, falsifiable. The president could decide to fire his Jeff Sessions and Stephen Miller and General Kelly and all the other people who have pushed him in the direction of racism, and renounce many of the claims he’s made; despite rigorous fact-checking, many of the claims he’s made about immigrants could be shown to be true (somehow); he could actually do things to promote racial harmony—these would all be possible but unlikely. They would falsify my theory, and elevate my mood.
But, I have noticed something more disturbing in the mirror world inhabited by those whose sympathies lie with the president. For them (and those who insist that anthropogenic climate change, vaccines, and evolution are bunk), there simply is no pre-Cambrian rabbit. There is no possible fact or observation that will change their position, and whether this is bad faith or just simple-mindedness, it makes rational argument impossible. When a Trump supporter at one of his tinpot “Triumph of the Will” rallies was asked about some of the images and recordings of children torn from their parents, they admitted that they were disturbing, but ultimately opined that they were probably faked. I’ve also heard dodges about how Trump is accomplishing great (but unspecified) things and how everybody is out to get him; and, finally, fake news, fake news, fake news. Even the most reliable, scrupulously reported pre-Cambrian rabbit is fake.
I don’t know a way beyond this impasse to civil discourse, although I’m pretty sure it doesn’t involve Facebook memes or using InfoWars as a reliable source. Perhaps any real attempt at discussion must be made one-on-one. Before attempting conversation, we have to tell each other about our pre-Cambrian rabbits. Acknowledging that our beliefs are falsifiable is the opposite of a sign of weakness; rather, it is a sign of honesty, like duelists of old showing each other that they are only using the prescribed weapons. Also, if you showed me a rabbit skull and told me it came from, say, the Laurentian Shield, I’d want to see some acceptable proof—and, like the rabbit itself, proof that I would be willing name as acceptable before it is produced.
I really doubt that a fossilized rabbit will ever be discovered in pre-Cambrian rocks. But, to be absolutely sure, I would be thrilled and excited to hear that a truly, completely verified rabbit fossil had been found in the basement sediments of the Grand Canyon. It would show me that I was working under an erroneous view of the world, and it would be fascinating to try to understand this newly illuminated world. And, while I would love to be wrong, I think that rabbit is more likely than finding that our president is not a racist.
No comments:
Post a Comment